Gartner suggests that UMPCs are going to have a tough time of it in the market or until: [Link via Rob Bushway]
* Technology advances that are at least two years away (including an eight-hour battery and a sub-$400 price)
* Low-cost, compelling content bundles (Intel and Microsoft are working on partnerships in this area)
* A better Microsoft shell/interface running on top of Vista
* Text entry options beyond “thumb-typing�
* "Dock and go" synchronization, requiring minimal user interaction
* Sustained market momentum from Microsoft and Intel
Don't these sound similar to the comments made over the last couple years about Tablets? Actually, you can say very similar things about any notebook. Better bundles. Better hardware. Better software. Lower prices. More marketing. But I agree, all of these are important.
Compelling applications will help too. I think it's interesting that they picked the sub-$400 price range too. I agree. Reality, of course, will dictate that the early-adopters won't see this price. We never do. That won't happen for a couple years--if at all. Reality also is that if there's enough compelling value, as consumers we'll even pay more than you might expect. We'll have to see if this comes to fruition though.
Now there is one area where I think Gartner misses the boat. They suggest that IT markets wait to purchase UMPCs. Hold on. If you were going to purchase let's say an HP TC1100, Motion LS800, OQO, Fujitsu 1510, or some other carry-everywhere notebook anyway? Why not consider a UMPC? I would.
UMPCs can easily be viewed as lower cost Tablets. They use widely available (read that lower cost) parts by design. As a purchaser of equipment, I'd definitely take that into account.
Gartner also suggests that Intel and Microsoft should have waited for more appropriate technology to appear (cheaper, less power hungry, etc). I totally disagree. First, exactly how long is someone supposed to wait? The concern, I guess, is that Microsoft, Intel, and their partners might underdeliver on UMPCs which would discourage future customers even when the technology "gets to a sweet spot."
What is that? Take the safe route? Ugh. Please don't. The solution is don't overpromise and overhype. You have to innovate. You have to push yourself.
Intel has signalled that they will work towards ultra-low-power processors and I expect that when and if they are manufactured that UMPCs will become even more popular. But I wouldn't wait until then to make devices around them. There are people today, that might look at a Tablet-like device for a solution and are held off because of price. UMPCs might be a good solution for them. Let the market decide.